If NASA is doing its best, we have much to worry about.  The first flight of the shuttle-replacing Crew Exploration Vehicle (aka Orion) is scheduled for 2015... that's five years after the shuttle is due to cease operations (which means it will likely keep flying because the US Govt. isn't going to tolerate a gap, which means more NASA money not available for developing the CEV, which means more delays in bringing that online, which means... well, you get it).  NASA needs an additional $2 Billion to improve the schedule to 2013, which it isn't likely to get (have you heard Hillary Clinton or any other Presidential candidate endorse a return to the Moon)?

That sad thing is that NASA may very well be doing its best, considering the political, financial and poor management obstacles it faces.  However, this is not the same thing as saying the US Govt. is doing its best, which it isn't.  As long as the Executive Branch and most of Congress equate US space activity with NASA, these problems will continue.  Only when it's understood that the US Govt. must enable private-sector development of Earth-orbit-Moon transportation, regardless of the time it takes, will we have reliable space transportation that endures.

Which leads me to the dragons.  Which will it be; the Chinese Dragon or the US private sector Dragon?  You haven't heard of the US private sector Dragon?  I refer you to the Dragon capsule being developed by Space Exploration Technologies Corp. that is scheduled to fly in 2008.  Sure, that may be delayed, too, but I'd bet on that before I'd bet on Orion.